The Shape of Things to Come - Part 1

Dear Pastors

How the Church will look after COVID19 is of heightened interest right now and understandably so. I think we can all agree our world will be different for quite some time if not forever. It will be a new normal. What we probably won’t agree on is how this new normal will affect the Christian church scene in NZ, if at all.

For the next three weeks I would like to throw a few thoughts into the mix. Please note. What follows is about NZ. I am very aware of the influences from other countries especially America and because we are a part of the Global Church we are subject to Global trends etc. Yet given that we have a number of unique features that make us who we are here at the bottom of the world which is different to any other country.

As I think about the future of the church in NZ, I am profoundly aware that we are not a homogeneous ‘sector’ in NZ society, not by any stretch of the imagination, if we ever were.

1. Every Sunday (prior to COVID19) about 10% of us left our homes most Sunday mornings of the year and headed to our local church. That’s about 500,000¹ of us. Some of us drove past anywhere between one and maybe up to four other churches to get to the one of our choosing.
2. What we have chosen is in my opinion becoming more defined. There are essentially two kinds² of churches we can choose from.
   • Type 1 are the contemporary, metro and full service churches. These churches include all of the bigger churches (over 500) in NZ. That said, not all Type 1 churches are big though normally they are around the 200 or so in attendance. Some are growing quite fast, others not so.
   • Type 2 are the smaller suburban, rural and coastal churches made up of mostly seniors with an average age of around 70. Many of these churches are declining but not all. These churches typically have a dickens of a job to hold onto their older teenagers and young adults, sadly³. Certainly in the cities that is the case. Not so much in rural or coastal NZ and that’s simply because there are no other choices.
3. After COVID19 most all of us who previously left our homes to go to church on Sunday can now stay home and watch ‘My Church’ live streamed. If 10.00am doesn’t suit then we can watch the service ‘on demand’ at a more suitable time. Goodness yet another option(s). How good can it get?
4. But wait! During lockdown I discovered a whole new world out there called ‘online church’. “I’d heard about it before but now I’ve discovered it. Some of my friends were talking about a really snazzy church somewhere in the UK that was awesome and…..well you should check it out. While I was at it I thought I would look up this preacher/teacher everyone seems to be talking about in America and he(or she) is very good……I mean very good. You don’t mean Steven Furtick? Well yes but I was also thinking about Craig Groeschel and don’t forget Andy Stanley”. Oh my goodness more choice.
5. So here in my opinion is our new challenge. I think dual membership⁴ is a growing possibility. In short dual membership says this. “I will go online for my content and I will go to my local church for fellowship, for my kids and perhaps pastoral care when I need it”. I know I know I hear your complaint loud and clear. Trust me I am complaining. But please friends can I urge you to get past the shock and offense of this scandalous prediction and instead really think about it.
   • Is this idea in the realm of possibility?
   • Could online options (digi-church, virtual church) be one explanation why physical attendances have become so sporadic over the last 20 years? And why so many millennials who grew up in church aren’t engaging well with a local church? Not to say anything about The Dones.
   • Could it be that the Sunday morning service that you provide and yes your preaching, Pastor, are being compared to world class preachers far more than you realise? But no one talks about that because it would hurt your feelings. And besides you get some (maybe a lot) positive feedback about your services and preaching.
   • Whose voice is having the most influence? Does that even matter anymore?
   • And oh while we are at it what is the average age of your church, really, truly?
6. Where I stand. I think it is very important we talk about this hard stuff. That said, I don’t agree with this ‘social trend’ and I am deeply worried how it will affect The Church in NZ and certainly most local churches not to say anything about the self-confidence of pastors. There is no doubt that consumerism is deeply embedded in our Christian sub-culture. So this behoves us to think deeply, read widely and pray fervently as we navigate post lockdown life together. How do we live in this new parallel universe and not just survive but thrive?

Finally for today. I believe God wants every local church to flourish and I also believe that He has a ‘blueprint’ for your church, for every local church on the planet in fact. I believe with all my heart that good and dedicated pastors are needed more than ever. I want to talk more about that exciting stuff for the next two weeks.

I would be grateful if you had any feedback. Just hit reply(and ignore the no-reply).

Blessings

Alan

¹ This figure includes Catholic Believers and children.

² This is of course an oversimplification. And besides there are always exceptions, always.

³ It is sad because they leave their ‘family’ church-the church they grew up in- to go across town to the ‘hip’ church where hundreds of young people go.

⁴ I’ve come up with this phrase, at least for now.

Alan Vink is currently the Executive Director for LeadershipWorx. Prior to this role he has been the Executive Director of Willow Creek Association NZ (WillowNZ), a Baptist pastor (23 years), Bible College teacher, and church consultant.