COVID-19 Stats and Unemployment

Good Morning and Welcome to this week’s Gospel and Culture update, by Alan Vink

COVID-19 Stats and Unemployment

Monday 20th April 2020

COVID-19 Stats

Here are the Stats as at 9.00am yesterday.

1431 Cases, 912 Recovered, 18 in Hospital (of which 2 are in ICU) and 12 have died.

Every death is a sad event and in no way do I want to minimise that.

That said, it is worth noting that all 12 who have died were over 70 most in their 80’and 90’s and ALL with compromised immune systems.

I have been very public in my support of the Government and the Lockdown. I still am.

However there is emerging now clear evidence that this is coming at a HUGE economic cost and with it a high likelihood of a 2nd wave of Health stats around heart attacks and mental illness.

WARNING: The following is really bad news. I am a man of great Christian hope BUT as you have heard said, ‘facts are our friends’.

Unemployment

• As at Friday afternoon the Gov’t wage subsidy was supporting 1.6m workers – half the entire workforce in NZ.
• If 10% of the workforce is made redundant that will equate to 300,000 people and every 1% higher is another 30,000 people.

Some Economists are predicting 20%. That’s 600,000 people. At 12% it will be the highest in my lifetime let alone 20%. That’s just frightening.

Many of these will be small business owners…..Ma and Pa businesses. People who have worked really hard for years and years, only to see it evaporate in the space of 4 weeks.

But not only that, in many cases they will be left with business debt as well. Some may even have to go through the agony of a Liquidation.

Treasury’s Weekly Economic Update on 17 April 2020

Forecasters grow more pessimistic…

Two of NZ's major banks downgraded their economic forecasts this week. The general view from bank forecasters is that GDP will contract by around 15% in the June quarter, with unemployment rising to around 9% in September 2020. That’s about a 70% increase from before the Lockdown and rising.

Here is a very helpful article (10 mins to read) from yesterday’s Sunday Star Times entitled, ‘Coronavirus: Redundancy Hammers Mental and Physical Health’.

Pastors and Christian Leaders. What questions are you asking? What analysis work are you doing? What pro-active measures are you taking to support somewhere in the region of 10-20% of your working people who are ‘suddenly’ out of a job¹? What measures have you put in place when the knock on effect bares upon your churches income?

I am currently planning a Zoom Briefing next week Tuesday 28th April at 4.00pm-5.00pm called, ‘A Pastoral Response to Redundancy’. It’s an open event. Please RSVP by replying to this email.

¹ This %age will vary region by region, city by city and even suburb by suburb. So much will depend on the demographics of your church.

Alan Vink is currently the Executive Director for LeadershipWorx. Prior to this role he has been the Executive Director of Willow Creek Association NZ (WillowNZ), a Baptist pastor (23 years), Bible College teacher, and church consultant.