Your Average Age?

Dear Pastors

Well not your average age (because that makes no sense anyway) but your congregations. And why is that important? Because most churches in NZ are ageing (greying) and we are blissfully unaware, largely because you are getting older too Pastor. Further, those same churches tend to be critical of those other churches in town (those Independent sorts) who are bucking this trend. We also know that youth group numbers have been declining for about the last 10 years. So, I think it is very important that you and I have an accurate picture of the age demographic in our churches.

So the diagnostic question for this week is simply:- What is the average age of your congregation? And while you are at it, find your median age as well.

I would recommend you do this exercise.

List all your regular attenders (members). Put their age beside their names. If you don't know for sure make an educated guess.

For your first calculation add them all up and divide by the total number of names. This includes from the very youngest to the most senior of folks, who regularly attend remember.

Now do that again but this time take all 15 - oldest only. That is O14 year olds.

From my observations over many years my guess is that in well over 50% of churches in NZ, the average age is in fact closer to 50 than 38 (NZ's average age). We all know anecdotally of denominational churches around NZ declining and dying. Others are made up of a declining number of seniors desperately trying to 'youthify' their church.

It's a very challenging issue. Seniors should always feel welcome in our churches. And as pastors we are wise to have age appropriate ministries for these folks. That's a given. However, the tension arises when we are wanting to focus on attracting young family people knowing full well that if we don't then our future as a local church has a 'glass ceiling'.

If you do an analysis of your church's age demographic, then have a leadership wide conversation about your findings and then decide what you need to do about it you will have completed a most worthwhile piece of work.
It may even result in a new strategy.

Below are a few interesting facts about NZ's population that you could use as a 'benchmark'.

Median Age

This statistic shows the median age of the population in New Zealand from 1950 to 2050. The median age is the age that divides a population into two numerically equal groups; that is, half the people are younger than this age and half are older. It is a single index that summarizes the age distribution of a population. In 2020, the median age of the New Zealand population was 38 years.

Fertility in New Zealand

A Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.1 represents the Replacement-Level Fertility: the average number of children per woman needed for each generation to exactly replace itself without needing international immigration. A value below 2.1 will cause the native population to decline.
Live births per women in NZ in 2020 is 1.9. Christians by and large have larger families than this. What is the size of families in your church?

At the 2018 Census

• There were 30 children aged 0-14 years for every 100 adults aged 15-64 years - similar to the 2013 Census (31 per 100).
• There were 23 people aged 65 years and over (65+) for every 100 adults aged 15-64 years - similar to the 2013 Census (22 per 100).

My Song Recommendation.

'One Day'. Matthew Paul Miller, known by his Hebrew and stage name Matisyahu, is an American Jewish reggae singer.
This most recent orchestration in Haifa asked 3,000 Muslims and Jews (none of whom had met before) to come together and learn the song "One Day" by Matisyahu in under an hour. Not only that, but they learned how to sing and harmonize the lyrics in three different languages. The resulting concert, which was made in collaboration with Beit HaGefen, the Haifa Municipality, and the Port of Haifa, is a breath-taking display of unity and beauty. It's just awesome!

Blessings

Alan

Alan Vink is currently the Executive Director for LeadershipWorx. Prior to this role he has been the Executive Director of Willow Creek Association NZ (WillowNZ), a Baptist pastor (23 years), Bible College teacher, and church consultant.